Upcoming Hot Weather Season (April to June-AMJ) is expected to have the above normal sub-divisional average seasonal temperatures (maximum, minimum and mean) over most of the meteorological sub-divisions of the country except the subdivisions of eastern, east central and southern parts for the country that are likely to experience slightly below normal seasonal temperatures. The AMJ seasonal average temperatures in most of the subdivisions are likely to be cooler than that of last year. Normal Heat wave (HW) conditions are likely over core heat wave zone of the country.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues operational seasonal forecast outlooks for subdivision scale temperatures over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons. These outlooks are generated based on predictions from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) Model and implemented by the office of Climate Research and Services (CRS), IMD, Pune. This year IMD had issued temperature outlook for the pre-monsoon season of March to May (MAM) on 28th February, 2018 in which it was forecasted that warmer than normal temperatures are likely during the MAM season in all meteorological sub-divisions (except Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim) of the country.
IMD noted that warmer than normal temperatures are expected to prevail in most of the subdivisions with maximum anomalies in subdivisions from northwest India and north India. However, normal to slightly below normal maximum temperatures are likely to prevail over subdivisions of eastern, east central and southern parts of the country. Overall, the seasonal (AMJ) temperature anomalies are likely to be colder than those observed during the corresponding season of 2017.