Commodities Buzz: USDA Estimates 10.6 Million Tonnes Decline In Global Wheat Production For MY 2018/19

The latest update from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global wheat production is projected at 747.8 million tons, down 10.6 million from the previous years record. Most of the year-over-year production decline stems from a 13.0-million-ton reduction for Russia. Global wheat consumption is projected at a record 753.9 million tons, up 10.1 million from 2017/18. Global imports are expected to increase 3.5 million tons in 2018/19 for the sixth consecutive record. With total use rising faster than supplies, global ending stocks are projected to decline 6.1 million tons to 264.3 million.

Total 2018/19 use is projected up 3 percent on higher food, feed and residual, and exports. Food use is projected at a record 965 million bushels, up 2.0 million bushels from the previous years revised estimate. U.S. feed and residual use is projected at 120 million bushels, up 50 million bushels from last years low level but still below the 5-year-average. Exports are projected at 925 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from the revised 2017/18 total. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are projected down 115 million bushels to 955 million, which if realized would be a 4-year-low. The season-average farm price is projected at a range of $ 4.50 to $ 5.50 per bushel. The midpoint of this range is up $ 0.30 per bushel from the previous year and the highest since 2014/15. Global wheat supplies for 2018/19 are projected to increase fractionally as higher beginning stocks are partially offset by a production decline following last years record. Global wheat production is projected at 747.8 million tons, down 10.6 million from the previous years record. Most of the year-over-year production decline stems from a 13.0-million-ton reduction for Russia. Global wheat consumption is projected at a record 753.9 million tons, up 10.1 million from 2017/18. Global imports are expected to increase 3.5 million tons in 2018/19 for the sixth consecutive record. With total use rising faster than supplies, global ending stocks are projected to decline 6.1 million tons to 264.3 million.