CONAB Raises Soaybean and Corn Crop Estimates of Brazil For MY 2017/18

In their latest monthly report, Conab increased their estimate for the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean crop by 2.0 million tons to 116.9 million and they increased the 2017/18 Brazilian corn estimate by 0.59 million tons to 89.2 million tons.

The 2017/18 Brazilian soybean estimate was increased 2.0 million tons to a new record of 116.9 million tons based on the strength of record soybean production in northeastern Brazil. The weather in northeastern Brazil during the growing season was ideal and farmers are reporting record yields. As a result, the soybean production in northeastern Brazil now accounts for approximately 11% of Brazils total soybean production.

The 2017/18 Brazilian nationwide soybean acreage was unchanged this month at 35.099 million hectares (86.69 million acres), which is up 3.5% from last year. The nationwide soybean yield is estimated at 3,333 kg/ha (49.3 bu/ac), which is down 0.9% from last year.

Total Brazilian corn production was increased 0.59 million tons to 89.2 million tons. The full-season corn production was increased 0.65 million tons to 26.2 million based on improved yields, while the safrinha corn production was trimmed 0.07 million tons to 62.9 million based on slightly lower corn yields.

In the reports commentary, Conab referenced the dry weather in southern Brazil and they indicated that the safrinha corn yield could decline if additional rainfall is not forthcoming. The safrinha corn production in Mato Grosso is estimated at 26.5 million tons, which is down 7.4% from last year. The corn yield in Mato Grosso is estimated at 5,928 kg/ha (91.2 bu/ac), which is unchanged from April.

The safrinha corn production in Parana is estimated at 11.5 million tons, which is down 11.9% from last year. The corn yield in Parana is now estimated at 5,393 kg/ha (83.0 bu/ac), which is down only 0.4 bu/ac from April in spite of the entire month of April.