Commodity outlook: MCX crude may slide on oversupply concerns, Soybean futures to extend slide

NEW DELHI: Base metals may rebound on Thursday while crude oil is expected to trade with negative bias as oil prices dropped on Thursday weighed down by a surprise rise in US crude inventories and expectations that Opec and other producers could increase output at a meeting in June.

Let’s find out how key commodities are likely to trade in the domestic market:

Crude Oil
Crude oil can take support near Rs 4,550 while it has a resistance near Rs 4,650 in MCX, says SMC Global Securities. A possible production increase by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and non-Opec members including Russia has been in focus, especially after Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the oil cartel, and Russia have discussed boosting output by some 1 million barrels per day.

Natural Gas: Natural gas may remain sideways as weather-related demand and weekly inventory data in the US will give further direction to the prices. Overall, it can move in the range of Rs 192 – Rs 200 on MCX.

Base Metals

Copper: Copper can take support near Rs 454 and can face resistance near Rs 463. Indian electrical goods manufacturers will have to rely more on imported copper and are bracing for a rise in costs, after the government in Tamil Nadu this week ordered the permanent closure of Vedanta’s copper smelter there, says SMC Global Securities.

Zinc, Lead: Zinc can trade with an upside bias as it can take support near Rs 209 and resistance near 215 while lead can take support near Rs 163 and can face resistance near Rs 167.

Agri Commodities

Soybean futures (June) is likely to fall further towards Rs 3,500 levels.

Mustard seed futures (June): is expected to trade with a downside bias and test Rs 3,860 levels taking negative cues from the spot markets.

Chana futures: Chana futures (June) is expected to break the support near Rs 3,500 levels and fall further towards Rs 3,450 – Rs 3,400 levels.

Bullion counter: Momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has shown bearishness with negative crossover for gold. “Therefore, we expect sideways to bearish movement in MCX gold prices,” says Choice Broking. Meanwhile, Silver (July futures) can take support near Rs 39,700 and can face resistance near Rs 40,300.