Argentina had been dealing with one of its worst droughts in history n++ at least from January through March. During that period, many crops lost 30% of their production potential and that has had an impact on the total South America crop and to a certain degree the export business as well. April weather suddenly changed in Argentina and rain has been falling more frequently. The moisture was needed to break the drought and to restore soil moisture for winter wheat and a few late season crops, but the rainfall pattern has become stagnant, resulting in multiple rain events over the heart of Argentina. Normally, storm systems move in and out of Argentina routinely during April, reducing the potential for moisture surpluses and sending some timely rain events into Brazil for its late season and second season crops.
The anomalous weather in South America has begun to prevail a little too long. Dryness in interior southern Brazil has begun to fester a little too long and topsoil conditions are trending much drier. Subsoil moisture is still favorable in southern Brazil but with reproduction of late planted corn expected next month, there is a growing need for significant rainfall to stave off a stressful reproduction and filling environment that might reduce yields and quality.Most of the computer weather forecast models have suggested Argentinas blocking weather pattern with frequent rain will prevail through the first week of May and that means interior southern Brazils dryness also will prevail for at least that much longer. The situation puts pressure on rainfall in the remainder of May. Timely rain will be imperative to support corn as it reproduces and fills, but normally rainfall does not occur that often or very significantly in May. The situation raises worry in the marketplace that second-season corn in Brazil, which is already advertised to be smaller because of reduced plantings, may soon face a further reduction in production because of limited rainfall during reproduction.