Commodity outlook: How crude, gold, copper are looking today

Gold and silver prices took on more clout on Thursday, with firm demand doing the trick.

Jewellers, industries, investors as well as retailers drove the uptrend.

MCX Gold was trading 0.32 per cent up at Rs 30,961 per 10 grams at around 10.20 am whereas MCX Silver was up 0.41 per cent at Rs 40,090 per kg.

Most base metals, including nickel, copper, aluminium ingots, zinc and lead, advanced in the international market, spurred by stockists’ buying amid sustained demand from industrial users.

Here’s Angel Commodities’ take on how various commodities are poised today.


The brokerage expects gold prices to move sideways on Thursday as trade tensions between the US and China continue to dominate the mindspace. The possibility of a rate hike by the US Fed in its June meeting looks very much likely. On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade either way.

Crude oil
The brokerage house expects oil to harden on Thursday as global prices are trading higher by 0.5 per cent at $ 65.06 per barrel. The Opec and Russia are meeting this month to revisit their oil output quotas, which will be a deciding factor for oil markets.

LME copper prices are up 1 per cent at $ 7284/t. They are likely to rule firm as supply woes coupled with a weaker dollar index may offer support.

Agri commodities:

NCDEX June Soybean edged down on Wednesday due to profit booking on reports of higher acreage for the next season after forecast of normal rains. The government is planning to hike import duties of soft oil — soy oil, rapeoil and sunflower oil — within a week.

The Soybean Processors Association of India predicted 14 per cent jump in soybean cultivation area in the country, which weighed on prices. The soybean futures closed lower for 3rd consecutive month in May.

As per a USDA monthly report, production forecast for soybean in India is pegged at 108 lakh tonnes (lt) compared with 90 lt last year due to the normal monsoon forecast. The government is likely to raise the incentive under Merchandise Exports from India Scheme on soymeal to 10 per cent of free-on-board value from the current 7 per cent.

Soybean futures are expected to trade sideways to lower on expectations of higher sowing data due to forecast of normal rains. However, improved domestic demand may give prices a leg to stand on.

Mustard futures are seen to be muted on little corrections, but higher crushing demand and improved meal exports will come as tailwinds.

Refine Soy Oil
Refined soy oil futures saw some technical corrections after it jumped higher in the previous session on reports that government is likely to hike import duty of all soft oils to support prices of domestic oilseeds.

Earlier, prices have been trading lower due to a stronger rupee, good stocks with traders and sufficient availability of oilseeds in the country.

Refined soy oil may remain subdued on expectations of a technical correction as base import prices have been steeply reduced. However, reports of hike in import duty and improving demand from the stockists can offer some solace.

Palm oil
CPO futures may lie low on weak international prices and higher domestic stocks. However, reports of hike in import duty of soft oils may prop up the price graph.

Chana June futures closed mixed on Wednesday. Chana has been under strain since start of sowing season last year on concerns about higher stocks.

Chana futures may be downbeat on likely corrections due to higher stocks. But restricted yellow pea imports and MSP procurement in different states may warm up prices.

Cotton futures are expected move a little up on reports of good physical and export demand, higher exports, diminishing arrivals and expectations of lower sowing in the coming season.

Jeera futures could gain on improved physical and exports demand as prices are at lower levels compared with last year. There are mixed signals from spot market, which may keep the prices in a range.

Turmeric futures are expected to trade on a positive note because of good export demand and lower than expected stocks. However, good rains in turmeric growing areas and steady physical demand ar the other variables.