Commodities Buzz: USDA Raises Indias Rice Production Estimates To Record Levels For MY 2017/18

The latest update from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) stated that Indian rice production for MY 2017/18 rice production is raised higher to a record 111 MMT on higher planted area reported by the government in the third advance estimate. Based on the revised official estimates from the MoA, MY 2017/18 planted area is revised higher to 43.9 million hectares. Posts MY 2017/18 production estimates are marginally lower than MoAs third advance estimate on expected lower yield Page 7 of 7 of rabi and summer rice based on field reports and relatively weaker government procurement in the second half of the marketing year.

After relatively strong procurement in the first half of the marketing season, MY 2017/18 rice procurement has fallen behind last year on relatively strong offtake by exporters. Government rice procurement through May 26, 2018, is estimated at 35 MMT compared to 37.1 MMT during the corresponding period last year.

Rice consumption for MY 2017/18 is estimated higher to 97.9 MMT to account for higher domestic supplies. MY 2017/18 ending stocks estimate is also raised higher to 20.5 MMT, with the additional 0.5 MMT to be consumed in the forecast year 2018/19. MY 2018/19 consumption forecast is raised higher to 98.5 MMT assuming normal consumption growth on forecast sufficient domestic supplies.