Commodity outlook: Mentha to stay choppy, base metals may see buying

Gold and silver may trade sideways on Monday as a buoyant euro kept the dollar off its 11-month highs. Trade issues between the United States and the European Union is further supporting the bullion.

Here’s a look at the trade setup for key commodities after Friday’s session: –

Bullion: Gold can take support near Rs 30,450 and face resistance near Rs 30,800 on MCX. Silver can take support near Rs 39,450 and can face resistance near Rs 40,000, according to SMC Global Securities.

Base metals: The base metals counter may witness some lower-level buying on Monday. China’s central bank said on Sunday it would cut the amount of cash that some banks must hold as reserves by 50 basis points (bps). SMC in a report said, “Copper can take support near Rs 452 and recover towards Rs 460.” London copper prices climbed on Monday from their lowest level in more than three weeks, hit the session before after China cut banks’ reserve requirements, improving liquidity and the prospects for metals demand. Hedge funds and money managers trimmed a net long position in copper futures and options in the week to June 19, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.

Zinc can take support near Rs 200 and resistance near Rs 205 while lead can take support near Rs 160 and can face resistance near Rs 165. Nickel may trade with upside bias as it can take support near Rs 1020 and head towards Rs 1050 and aluminium may witness some short covering as it can take support near Rs 147 and resistance near Rs 150 in MCX, according to SMC.

Energy: Crude oil may trade mixed on Monday after sharp rally on Friday. OPEC agreed with Russia and other oil-producing allies on Saturday to raise output from July, with Saudi Arabia pledging a “measurable” supply boost but giving no specific numbers. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had announced an OPEC-only production agreement on Friday, also without clear output targets. On Saturday, non-OPEC oil producers agreed to participate in the pact but a communique issued after their talks with the Vienna-based group provided no concrete numbers amid deep disagreements between OPEC arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. SMC believes that crude oil can face resistance near Rs 4,720 and can take support near Rs 4620 in MCX.

Agri Commodities (Outlook by Geojit Financial Services)

Cardamom July MCX: If prices stay well above the 45-day EMA support at Rs 955, expect a bounceback to Rs 980/990 levels.

Mentha oil June MCX: Rangebound trade expected during the day.

Turmeric July NCDEX: Expect choppy trading during the session.

Chana July NCDEX: If prices do not surpass the trend line resistance seen at Rs 3,550, it could see lower correction to Rs 3,450/3,430 levels, or even lower to Rs 3,390 level.

Refined Soy oil July NCDEX: As long as the Rs 750 level caps the upside, expect a lower correction to Rs 743/740 levels.

Castor July NCDEX: If prices sustain above the support zone at Rs 4,125, it could trigger some pullbacks to Rs 4,175-4,225 levels. Moreover, the daily RSI (14) is moving higher, signalling some upside.

Cotton June MCX: As long as the resistance at the 22-day EMA caps the upside at Rs 22,250, the weakness may extend towards Rs 21,600/21,400 levels. The daily RSI (14) is at a neutral point.