Gold may be better off at Rs 30,350, silver eyes Rs 36,800

Gold prices inched up on Friday as the dollar lost its way on softer-than-expected US consumer prices data that weakened the case for a faster pace of Fed policy tightening.

MCX Gold prices were up 0.34 per cent at Rs 30,554 per 10 grams early in the session while MCX Silver rose 0.40 per cent at Rs 37,211 per kg.

Here’s a lowdown on the outlook of commodities from brokerages SMC Global Securities.

Spices: Turmeric futures (October) are expected to trade with a downside bias and test Rs 6,600-6,550 levels. Bearish fundamentals such as expectations of higher output this year and the ongoing lethargic demand are likely to keep the upside capped.

The spot prices are reeling under pressure at the mandis in Erode as traders are quoting lower price looking at the poor quality arrivals. Jeera futures (October) may go higher to test Rs 20,200 levels. Spot jeera prices ruled strong at major markets in the country amid improving demand. A sharp increase in prices of jeera in the spot market has been witnessed over the last few trading sessions as export demand is rising consistently due to low supply in other key producing countries and a broad weakness in the Rupee.

The bulls are expected to continue to ride on cardamom futures (October) and keep the counter above Rs 1,415 levels. The market participants are almost sure of a fall in output in 2018-19 (July-June) following incessant rains in Kerala over the past few months causing severe damage to plantation.

Oilseeds: Soybean futures (October) are expected to trade sideways in the range of Rs 3,225-3,285 levels with downside getting capped. A positive bias can be seen in mustard futures (October) and it is expected to move higher towards Rs 4,285 levels. Soy oil futures (October) would possibly take a dip towards Rs 735-732 levels while CPO futures (September) may break the support near Rs 592 and plunge further towards Rs 590-588 levels taking negative cues from the international markets.

Bullion: Gold can take support near Rs 30,350 and face resistance near Rs 30,650 on MCX. Silver can find relief near Rs 36,800 with resistance near Rs 37,300.

Base metals: The counter may trade with a mixed bias. China reported better-than-expected industrial output and retail sales on Friday, but a key investment gauge fell to a fresh record low, highlighting the challenges facing Beijing as it tries to support the economy in the face of rising US tariffs.

Copper can face resistance near Rs 433 and take support near Rs 422. London copper edged lower on Friday, pulling back from a two-week high hit in the prior session as investors exercised caution ahead of possible trade talks between the US and China to resolve an escalating tariff war.

Zinc can face resistance near Rs 171 and support near Rs 165 while lead can find comfort near Rs 143 and face hurdle near Rs 147. Tailwind for Nickel can be Rs 885 while its upside will be capped near Rs 915. Aluminium can trade sideways as it can get some cushion near Rs 144 with a likely barrier near Rs 147.

Energy: Crude oil may witness some short covering as crude oil clawed back some of its losses from the previous session when prices fell the most in a month although worries that emerging market crises and trade disputes could dent demand continued to drag. Overall, it can take support near Rs 4,870 and may face resistance near Rs 4,950 on MCX.

Other commodities: Cotton futures (October) may trade with a downside bias and test Rs 22,700-22,600 levels. ICE cotton futures fell for the third straight session and posted their biggest one day percentage drop in nearly a month, on expectations that Hurricane Florence may cause less damage than feared to the natural fibre.

Selling pressure from higher levels on back of estimates of higher production may drag down guar seed futures (October) to Rs 4,240-4,200 levels.